Real Christmas

Holy mother of Adam West — there is a hot rumor floating about for Christmas 2008;

A Hollywood Reporter article comparing and contrasting the box office legs of ‘The Dark Knight‘ vs all-time champ ‘Titanic‘ posits there’s one reason why the batfilm won’t outlast the romantic disaster: DVDs.

According to the report, Warner plans on pushing ‘Dark Knight‘ discs into stores during the lucrative holiday buying frenzy. For the movie to outlast ‘Titanic‘, it would still have to be drawing box office ticket sales in December. Would people go see the movie when they can watch it on DVD?

SANTA CLAUS, Ind.—Many things can be said about this town along the Indiana-Kentucky border, but there is one unequivocal truth: Santa exists here, even in the dead of summer.

The jolly fat man is everywhere. The town hotel is Santa’s Lodge, with St. Nick’s Restaurant inside, where Buffalo wings are called “Reindeer Paws.” Down the street on Holiday Boulevard is Silent Night Cafe, a short walk from Lake Rudolph Campground and Frosty Fun Center, which is around the corner from St. Nicholas Catholic Church. The post office, at 45 N. Kringle Place, receives thousands of children’s letters addressed to Santa Claus each Christmas.

Here in the lush, rolling green hills of southern Indiana, 3,585 miles from the geographic North Pole, a town’s economic engine is dependent on tourists who seek a Christmas experience year-round. The facade may have a whiff of gimmickry and/or clever marketing, but there are 2,200 people who call Santa Claus home year-round.

So, what is it like to live in a town where “Jingle Bells” plays in July? We took a trip down there to find out.

“It’s really neat, because you get away with it,” said Sylvia Seger, surrounded by an astonishing Christmas display of more than 500 Santa-related paraphernalia in her living room. “You wouldn’t get away with this anyplace else.”

By outward appearances, there is perhaps no happier, more joyful place than the Seger residence. In the living room, lights adorn trees, Santas come in many forms two and three-dimensional and everything has a red-and-green warmness to it. It risks tackiness, but it’s all charm.

Another way of looking at this: They don’t have to take any Christmas ornaments down, not even after Jan. 1.

“When I bring people into the room, I always tell them to think of this room as a museum,” said Seger, a retired first-grade teacher. “Because if you think of this as a living room, it is a little overwhelming.”

The Segers live in Christmas Lake Village. Their house is on the corner of Evergreen Drive and Melchior Drive (Melchior being one of the three wise men). The Village is a gated community built in 1969, spreading over 2,500 acres with three artificial lakes: Christmas Lake, Lake Noel and Lake Holly. During December, the gates open up for “The Festival of Lights,” an electric meter- spinning display of 800 decorated homes that lights up the southern Indiana sky.

And there are few families that also exhibit the Christmas spirit as colorfully as the Segers. This raises the question: Does it ever get old?

“Since I have Christmas all year long, perhaps Christmas isn’t quite as special on just that single day as it might be for other people,” Sylvia said. “But I like it that way. It’s not that it is worse or boring. I just get to enjoy it more.”

At the post office where mail addressed to 47579 is delivered, the madness begins at Thanksgiving.

This may be true of any postal facility in America, but in Santa Claus, Ind., upward of 10,000 letters addressed to Jolly St. Nick arrive at Marian Balbach’s office.

Balbach, the town’s postmaster, said she receives letters from as far away as Japan and Sweden.

Some of them come from really needy families,” she said. “Some of them are really heart-wrenching, because they are asking for a job for Mommy or a job for Daddy.”

Her job then, is to make sure all the mail addressed to Santa gets answered. The letters are handed off to a group of volunteers called “Santa’s Elves” at the Santa Claus Museum, where one of four form letters is used.

One letter is intended for children who ask for lots of presents (“My elves are all scurrying around helping me find special gifts for all our friends … we will try to bring some of the presents you are wishing for.”) Another letter is aimed for adults (“Remember to share your gifts with others”). All return letters include a personalized handwritten P.S. note. Postage is covered by donations.

“The letters they send are general, and (don’t) promise anything,” Balbach said. “But it lets them know that Santa is thinking about them, and that they’ll see him at Christmas.”

By KEVIN PANG and MICHAEL PASTERNAK
Chicago Tribune

Warner Brothers is looking to revive their animated features franchise with the release of several new episodes featuring Marvin the Martian. Marvin’s new adventures will be a mix of classic animation and computer animation the likes of Polar Express.

Not surprisingly, one of the first projects in the new series will feature Marvin trying to destroy Christmas.

Over at My Merry Christmas we have started collecting names and addresses for our annual Christmas card exchange. This lively event has become an annual tradition. If managed right you can enjoy the revived art of getting LOTS of Christmas cards in the mail. It adds not only a lot of excitement at the mail box but it provides an element of decorating to your home as well.

I just updated the list of forum users who have signed up so far. Last year we had about 100 names on the list. And after a month of taking names we’re already up to 31 names — and it is still early August. Last year there was a flurry of additions at the last minute. So I think we will easily beat last year’s record.

But already I have had some folks email me some questions. Let me go through them one by one:

1. I don’t know most of these people! Do I have to send them all a card?

Nope. You don’t. In fact, if you want to get more cards from people you should be active on the forums so they get to know you. For others, there is a cost factor. Some of these folks live internationally. For many, sending out that many cards is a burden. Nobody should feel compelled — this is a fun event and should be kept that way.

2. Do I really want cards from total strangers?

You’ll be surprised how enjoyable it is to get cards from people you don’t know well. To see their taste in just selecting a card to send is interesting. To receive pictures or copies of family newsletters is also fun.

3. Is there a right way to do this?

Yes. First, be active on the forums. Get to know people.

Second, send cards early. Usually, getting your cards prepped and ready to send before Thanksgiving is a good idea. Generally speaking, the more cards you send early, the more cards you will receive.

Christmas in July? Maybe not a bad idea this year.

Retailers in the United States are already talking about price increases of up to 15 per cent this year on holiday goods, from staples like tree ornaments and toys to luxury gifts like European handbags and clothing. The main cause? It’s the same old chestnut, soaring energy prices.

While most consumers are just starting to think about back-to-school shopping, retailers are already preparing for the critical holiday season. Consumers have been seeing prices creep up for many products, but now escalating cost pressures — which are also being fuelled by the weaker U.S. dollar and higher labour costs in China — are forcing merchants from low-price warehouse clubs to upscale clothiers to pass on more of the burden in the months ahead.

Many stores are still deciding on their holiday prices, and receding oil prices in recent weeks could provide a bit of relief. Still, buying that status handbag now might help shoppers save a little — but for some items, it’s already too late.

And any big surge in demand could lead to more bad news on the inflation front, serving as a catalyst for prices to spiral.

With bigger price increases, merchants risk turning off shoppers who may end up buying fewer holiday gifts to keep to their budgets. That could mean a serious hit for the economy, since consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of all economic activity and the holiday period accounts for a huge chunk of merchants’ sales and profits.

“Truthfully, I probably won’t purchase items that go up that much — especially something like Christmas decorations,” said Marilyn Reese of Cincinnati, who works at an insurance company. “I will just go with what I have.”

Carl Steidtmann, chief economist at Deloitte Research, says that price inflation will be yet “another factor that undermines consumer purchasing power and will hurt spending even more.”

“This will be a very difficult holiday season,” he said.

The price increases come as stores also have to be pushing even deeper discounts this holiday season to attract customers. But that 50 per cent off may not be as good a deal as last year since the original price could be higher.

Even Costco Wholesale Corp., which had been one of the bright spots in retailing, warned last week that its profit was getting squeezed by rising energy costs and it would have to raise prices more. Richard Galanti, Costco’s chief financial officer, specifically cited holiday decor and rotisserie chickens, which are popular for holiday meals.

Holiday decor will be as much as 12 per cent pricier this holiday season than a year ago, and the price of rotisserie chicken, which had been US$4.99 for years, was raised to $5.49 about three months ago and just went up to $5.99 last week.

Toy prices are likely to be about 10 per cent higher for the holidays than a year ago, said Sean McGowan, an analyst at Needham and Co.

K-B Toys Inc., which focuses on selling past toy hits at discounted prices, says it isn’t increasing prices for now. The chain even unveiled a program Monday that offers temporary price cuts on some already reduced toys. But the discounts are a result of logistical manoeuvring. Advertising director Geoffrey Webb said the chain has started consolidating trips from the distribution centres to stores to save fuel costs.

Kathleen Waugh, a spokeswoman for Toys “R” Us, Inc., said that prices for some products will stay steady, while others will have “gradual” increases beginning in early fall. But at Kidstop Toys and Books in Scottsdale, Ariz., which offers mostly European brands, 10 per cent price hikes have already begun, according to owner Kate Tanner.

’This will be a very difficult holiday season.’

The CEO of Nintendo is warning consumers in the U.S. that if they want to get their kids a Wii for Christmas they had better get it now. Come the holiday season it seems the Wii will be in short supply — again.

He cites “unusually high demand” in the U.S. for the Wii.

Consumers in Europe can walk in to any retailer and buy the game system any minute of any day — year round, even during peak holiday seasons.

So why is it so hard to find in the U.S.?

We don’t suppose the weak dollar has anything to do with it. We’re sure Nintendo just can’t find the U.S. on a map.

There’s no cheerful way to say it: Get ready for a sober Christmas season.

Yes, it’s only July, but retailers already are deep in planning mode for the holiday season, and what they are sensing adds up to potential trouble, with some experts saying this could be the toughest environment in almost 30 years.

“What word should I use? Terrible? Horrible? Miserable?” said Homi Patel, chairman and chief executive of Hartmarx Corp., a Chicago-based clothing manufacturer of suits and sportswear, when asked to describe the 2008 holiday. “There is a time when the consumer isn’t going to shop. It doesn’t matter if it’s 70 percent off or 80 percent off, the mind-set is, ‘I just don’t want to shop.’ And that’s something we haven’t seen in quite some time.”

With credit harder to come by, homes no longer a source of quick cash, and stock portfolios shrinking, retailers are bracing to duke it out for every dollar this holiday. Merchants are keeping inventories lean to avoid the risk of costly markdowns. And they are making a keen effort to keep prices down.

In a sign of what is ahead, Costco Wholesale Corp., the warehouse club chain that has steadily weathered the economic slowdown, warned Wednesday that profit for the current quarter would be “well below” Wall Street estimates as the company grapples with higher energy costs and holds back on price increases in order to keep customers.

The Platt Retail Institute, one of the first think tanks to venture a holiday forecast, predicts sales will increase about 2.8 percent, less than last year’s 3 percent, which was the worst in five years. The Hinsdale-based firm also sees a longer-term shift in consumer spending that will start to show up this holiday season.

The magnitude of the housing crisis, combined with soaring food and gas prices, leads the research group to believe that consumer spending, a main driver of the economy, will shrink as a percentage of the gross domestic product in the years ahead.

Consumer spending accounts for about 71 percent of GDP, up from 65 percent in 1980. Platt predicts that percentage will revert to about 66 percent as consumers seek to strengthen their household balance sheets over the next decade.

“What was not understood by many lenders during the recent housing cycle, for which consumers are now bearing the result of this reckless lending, is the realization that the value of assets, like houses, can go down,” said Steven Platt, author of the report. “People are going to be spending less and, hopefully, saving more, so the retail base will have to shrink.”

At the moment, retailers are keeping a close eye on back-to-school sales for signs of how shoppers will behave come November. The International Council of Shopping Centers forecasts sales for the three-month period of mid-July through mid-September will rise 1 percent, the smallest increase since 2001.

The back-to-school sales season often is held as a bellwether for holiday sales, but this year is complicated by the federal tax-rebate checks, which likely will give an artificial lift to July and August sales.

“There really are a lot more unknowns this year, which is why it’s difficult for retailers to plan,” said Ellen Davis, senior director for strategic communications for the retail trade group.

Gas prices, for example, cut directly into discretionary spending, but no one knows where pump prices will be in November.

Retailers also could get help in the form of another government stimulus package, currently being talked about in Congress. And the outcome of the presidential election could have an impact.

Retailers have placed the bulk of their orders for the holiday season. Come November, the trick will be to figure out how to get shoppers into their stores or onto their Web sites.

Amazon.com, the world’s largest Internet retailer, just started a service that allows shoppers to purchase gifts online without a credit card.

American Eagle Outfitters Inc., the young-adult clothing chain, is banking on sweaters under $40 and a new computer system that allows cashiers to see what is in stock at its distribution center, the company disclosed in a July 15 presentation to analysts. So, if a shopper can’t find a size or style in the store, the cashier can still complete the sale and send it directly from the center.

J. Crew Group Inc., the high-end preppy retailer, is planning “very conservatively” for the holiday and attempting to simplify its assortments, Chairman and CEO Millard “Mickey” Drexler said in the company’s May 29 earnings conference call. December has become “the biggest promotional month in the world,” he said, a fact that retailers can’t escape.

“I guarantee this year—I guess, it’s a personal opinion—that the customers are going to continue to wait [for sale prices],” said Drexler. “I was in the shopping center the last two weeks; there are so many sale signs everywhere. People are smart, they know it, and they will wait.”

For Jason White, it’s not too early to start thinking about Christmas.

The software developer, fed up with confronting a spike in credit card bills every January, is putting money aside for holiday shopping for the first time, rather than going into debt.

“We’ve been trying to get out of credit card debt and we certainly don’t want to go deeper into debt,” said White, who chronicles his progress at FrugalDad.com, a blog he began this year in an effort to take control of his personal finances. “It takes some level of restraint to keep the money in there.”

Economist Scott Hoyt expects more consumers to rediscover the need to save for the holidays.

“We’re very worried about the outlook for holiday,” said Hoyt, chief economist for consumer affairs at Moody’s Economy.com. “The question is: Do we get a turnaround in the labor markets or another stimulus package? If we don’t get one or the other, it’s going to be ugly.”